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Scientists have found a correlation between climate change and the frequency of civil wars
Last reviewed: 30.06.2025
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Using statistical analysis, American scientists have established a relationship between El Niño cycles and the frequency of civil wars "in many tropical countries," The Independent writes, citing a publication in Nature. According to the study's authors, they "have shown for the first time that the stability of modern society is highly dependent on global climate." This means that "the world may yet face more turbulent times."
El Niño is a periodic increase in water temperature in the tropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific Ocean that every 3-7 years leads to warming and droughts in Africa, the Middle East, India, Southeast Asia, Australia, North and South America. The opposite phase, characterized by cooling and increased precipitation in these areas, is called La Niña. Together, they make up the so-called Southern Oscillation.
Experts from Columbia University (New York) compared statistical data on this phenomenon with the history of clashes that occurred in the tropics from 1950 to 2004. The sample included 175 countries and 234 conflicts. It turned out that during the La Niña period, the probability of a civil war here was about 3%, and during El Niño - already 6%. In countries not subject to the Southern Oscillation, this figure was stable at around 2%. As the authors of the publication emphasize, it is incorrect to believe that wars begin because of the weather alone. However, they believe that the climatic factor could have played a role in 21% of civil wars that have occurred over the past half century around the world. The correlation mechanism remains unclear.
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