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The link between climate change and the economic crisis has been proven
Last reviewed: 30.06.2025
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The cooling of the climate in Europe at the end of the 16th century led to an economic crisis, plague epidemics and famine, and as a result of chronic malnutrition, people's height decreased by 2 centimeters over 100 years, according to scientists from the University of Hong Kong led by Dr. David Zhang.
Recent studies have shown that climate and environmental disasters trigger drastic social changes. For example, global warming leads to civil wars, affects the birth rate of the population, and the spread of the plague epidemic.
A study by David Zhang and colleagues has shown how climate affected people's lives in Europe between the 16th and 19th centuries.
By statistically analyzing 14 variables, such as population, wars, human migration, gold and food prices, wages in Europe, tree ring width, temperature data in Europe from 1500 to 1800, and applying the Granger method, the group of scientists established causal relationships between these variables.
The cold snap has led to an economic crisis
The sharp climate changes towards cooling in the period from 1560 to 1660 really turned out to be a significant cause of social unrest among the population of Europe, civil wars, and the spread of the plague epidemic.
David Zhang explained the logical chain of events by saying that the cold snap led to a sharp decline in agricultural harvests; this led to an increase in gold prices and inflation.
Chronic malnutrition reduced growth
The crop failure during this period caused famine. But despite the famine, the population of Europe continued to grow, which led to an increase in food prices, and human resources became devalued. Due to constant hunger and malnutrition, the average height of a European decreased by 2.5 centimeters over a hundred years.
The era of economic crisis coincided with mass migration of the population. Chaotic migrations led to the rapid spread of the plague epidemic, which subsided in 1650, which coincided with another warming of the climate. In the middle of the 17th century, the Age of Enlightenment began in Europe.
The study showed correlations between temperature changes and historical events in past centuries, which made it possible to determine the threshold of crisis and predict social catastrophes.