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Widespread use of natural gas won't help slow climate change
Last reviewed: 30.06.2025
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Although burning natural gas produces far less carbon dioxide than coal, a new study has found that using more natural gas will not help significantly slow climate change.
Tom Wigley, a senior scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, highlights the complex and sometimes contradictory ways in which fossil fuels influence Earth’s climate. Along with carbon dioxide, burning coal emits large amounts of sulfates and other particles that, while damaging to the environment, cool the planet slightly by blocking sunlight.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that it is unclear how much methane is leaking during natural gas operations (methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas).
Computer modelling by Mr Wigley has shown that a 50 per cent reduction in coal use and a corresponding increase in natural gas would push global temperatures up by less than 0.1°C over the next 40 years. After that, a reliance on natural gas would gradually reduce the rate of global warming, but not significantly compared with the planet’s projected 3°C warming by 2100, assuming current energy trends continue.
If methane leakage during associated operations is kept to 2%, warming can be reduced by about 0.1°C by 2100. With zero leakage, the figure will be 0.1–0.2°C. If leakage reaches 10% (the worst case), the use of natural gas will have no impact on global warming until 2140.
"No matter what the level of methane leakage, additional warming is unavoidable because by giving up coal you are also giving up the emission of sulphates and other aerosols," Mr Wigley stresses.
In all leak scenarios, the relative cooling effect of natural gas will become apparent in the 22nd century, but will be equally minimal.