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Scientists have found a way to prevent terrorist attacks
Last reviewed: 01.07.2025
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Often, leaders use fiery, passionate speeches to evoke emotions in people. It is these emotions that scientists believe can predict the actions of a crowd.
The results of the new research were published in the journal Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political Aggression.
An analysis of speeches by political and terrorist leaders, as well as highly respected ideological activists, showed that before committing acts of violence, groups of people listened to speeches from leaders filled with anger and contempt.
"When a leader's speech is filled with anger, malice and negative emotions, it is a powerful tool in controlling a crowd and provoking it to violent actions," says David Matsumoto, a professor of psychology and director of the Laboratory for Research on Culture and Emotion at the University of California, San Francisco.
Matsumoto devoted twenty years of his life to the study of human relationships, culture, and the psychology of emotions, becoming a recognized authority in these areas of psychology.
In a five-year project funded by the Defense Department, Matsumoto and his colleagues examined transcripts of speeches by ideological groups' leaders over the past century. The analysis included speeches by Osama bin Laden that led to the embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania.
The researchers analyzed the leaders' emotional behavior patterns as they talked about their rivals and captured three other moments in the leaders' passionate speeches.
In the speeches of leaders of violent groups, three to six months before the act of violence, the expression of anger, contempt and hatred significantly increased.
In peacefully minded groups of people, anger and hatred in speeches decreased three to six times before peaceful resistance.
Matsumoto says the findings suggest that the emotional tone of a leader's speech can be transmitted to others, which then motivates others to engage in violent action.
"For violent groups that committed acts of violence, disgust, contempt and anger were a way to influence people," Matsumoto says.
“Knowledge and understanding of the factors that lead to terrorist attacks and violent events can help predict and prevent them,” the scientists comment. “Studying the emotions that leaders and leaders send to the masses is only part of a larger puzzle, but even this knowledge can be useful for predicting terrorist attacks.”
The study is the first of seven planned. It is funded by the US Department of Defense under Project Minerva, which was created in 2008 to fund social science research in areas of strategic importance to US national security.
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