The rise in sea level will last 500 years
Last reviewed: 16.10.2021
All iLive content is medically reviewed or fact checked to ensure as much factual accuracy as possible.
We have strict sourcing guidelines and only link to reputable media sites, academic research institutions and, whenever possible, medically peer reviewed studies. Note that the numbers in parentheses ([1], [2], etc.) are clickable links to these studies.
If you feel that any of our content is inaccurate, out-of-date, or otherwise questionable, please select it and press Ctrl + Enter.
The rise in sea level in the coming centuries can be called, perhaps, one of the most catastrophic consequences of temperature growth. Huge economic costs, social upheavals and forced migration - that's what it will lead to.
"Based on the current situation, we predict that the sea level change will last 500 years," - the author of the survey, Aslak Grinstead, from the Glaciology and Climatology Center of the Institute im. Niels Bohr at the University of Copenhagen (Denmark).
The graph shows how the sea level will vary depending on the four scenarios. Green, yellow and orange lines correspond to scenarios in which the stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions takes 10, 30 and 70 years respectively. The red line provides for further increase in emissions. (Picture of the authors of the work.)
In collaboration with colleagues from England and China, he developed a model that is based on what happens to greenhouse gas emissions, aerosols and air pollution. Then the model was corrected in the opposite direction, in order to correspond to real measurements, after which it was used to predict the prospects of rising the level of the World Ocean.
The research team has envisaged four scenarios. At the most pessimistic (emissions continue to grow) sea level will rise by 1.1 m by 2100 and will grow by 5.5 m to 2500 m. Even with the most optimistic development of events (new technological achievements, active international cooperation for the cessation of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution), the sea level will continue to grow. By 2100, it will rise by 60 cm, and by the 2500th - by 1.8 m.
With two more realistic scenarios for stabilizing emissions and pollution, by 2100 the sea level will rise by about 75 cm, and by 2500 m - by 2 m.
"In the 20th century, the sea rose an average of 2 mm per year, but this process is accelerating, and in recent decades sea level has started to grow by about 70% faster," says Mr. Grinstead. "Even in the event of the cessation of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, sea level rise will continue to accelerate for several centuries due to the delayed reaction of the sea and ice caps. It may take 400 years before we return to the index of the 20th century. "