Institute of Demography: Ukraine can not avoid further population decline
Last reviewed: 16.10.2021
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The deputy director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Elena Makarova, says that Ukraine can not avoid further population decline even with positive fertility trends.
E. Makarova said this on the occasion of the World Population Day, which, on the decision of the UN General Assembly, is celebrated annually on July 11.
She informed, referring to the statistical data, that in Ukraine there is a rapid decrease in the total population, mainly due to young and efficient people.
"And, unfortunately, the forecast in this sense is extremely unfavorable. Even with positive fertility trends that we are seeing now, we will not be able to break the downward trend. Fertility in the foreseeable future will not provide even a simple reproduction of the population, "the expert said.
She also noted the deepening of the aging of the population in Ukrainian society, that is, the increase in the proportion of people older than 60-65 years. "This process is inevitable in the future," she assured.
"According to the forecast, the population will decrease, and its number will hardly exceed 40 million until 2050. The share of youth will decrease," she stated, citing data from the developed forecasts on the trends and consequences of demographic processes in Ukraine.
According to her, due to the low birth rate in the country, the population is "aging".
"Compared with the census data of 1959, 1989 and the last in 2001, we see that the rural population and the female population have grown most in the structure. The average age of people in the regions varies from 36 years in the west of the country - Transcarpathian, Rivne, Volyn region, to 43 years - in Chernigov, Donetsk and Lugansk regions, "the researcher stated.
Thus, according to forecasts, in comparison with the census of the population of 1959, the proportion of older people will grow in the structure of the population of Ukraine from 10% to 32% in 2050, and the proportion of middle age will decrease from 55% to 50% and the share of younger population will decrease - from 34% to 18%.
In addition, there will be significant sexual imbalance in older age groups, especially among singles. If we consider the ratio of men and women at the age of 60 years and older in relation to the entire population of the country, then women will be somewhere in two times more, and if we take only the data of singles, then the ratio is 1 man somewhere for 8 women.
Separately, E. Makarova highlighted the need to introduce the concept of lifelong education - to update knowledge and skills for older age groups of the population, taking into account the fact that in the world the renewal of knowledge and technology is taking place at an incredibly fast pace.
"The economically active population will not be sufficiently replenished in the foreseeable future at the expense of young contingents, who have knowledge that meet the modern requirements of the innovative economy. Today, the intellectual and creative potential of the elderly is not fully used. And, in addition, there are quite persistent stereotypes in society, negative, regarding the role and abilities of older people, "the expert noted. In her opinion, the state policy in the conditions of the aging population should be based on at least two components: the first - a policy aimed at changing the demographic structure, in particular, increasing the birth rate and replenishing the young population through migration policy, and the second component - it is the support of people of advanced age, and the main means of their material support should be a pension.