New publications
Global life expectancy is expected to increase by almost 5 years by 2050
Last reviewed: 02.07.2025
All iLive content is medically reviewed or fact checked to ensure as much factual accuracy as possible.
We have strict sourcing guidelines and only link to reputable media sites, academic research institutions and, whenever possible, medically peer reviewed studies. Note that the numbers in parentheses ([1], [2], etc.) are clickable links to these studies.
If you feel that any of our content is inaccurate, out-of-date, or otherwise questionable, please select it and press Ctrl + Enter.
The latest results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, published in The Lancet, project that global life expectancy will increase by 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women between 2022 and 2050.
The largest increases are expected to occur in countries with lower life expectancy, contributing to a convergence of life expectancy across regions. This trend is largely driven by public health measures that have prevented and improved survival from cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and a range of infectious, maternal, neonatal, and nutrition-related diseases (CMNN).
The study shows that the continued shift in the disease burden towards noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) – such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes – and exposure to risk factors associated with NCDs, such as obesity, high blood pressure, poor nutrition and smoking, will have the greatest impact on the disease burden of the next generation.
As the disease burden continues to shift from CMNN to NCD and from deaths to years lived with disability, people are expected to live longer, but with more years spent in poor health. Global life expectancy is projected to increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years).
Global healthy life expectancy (HALE) – the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health – will increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 (an increase of 2.6 years).
To reach these conclusions, the study projects cause-specific mortality; years of life lost due to premature death (YLL); years lived with disability (YLD); disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, years of healthy life lost due to ill health and premature death); life expectancy; and HALE from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories.
"In addition to the increase in overall life expectancy, we found that inequality in life expectancy between regions will decrease," said Dr. Chris Murray, chair of the Department of Health Sciences at the University of Washington and director of the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (IHME). "This suggests that while health inequalities between the richest and poorest regions will remain, the gaps will narrow, with the largest increases expected in sub-Saharan Africa."
Dr Murray added that the greatest opportunities to accelerate reductions in the global disease burden lie in policies aimed at preventing and mitigating behavioural and metabolic risk factors.
These findings build on the results of the 2021 GBD risk factors study, also published in The Lancet. This companion study found that the total number of healthy life years (DALYs) lost due to metabolic risk factors has increased by 50% since 2000.
The study also offers different alternative scenarios to compare potential health effects if exposure to several key risk factors could be eliminated by 2050.
"We project significant differences in the global DALY burden between different alternative scenarios to understand what has the greatest impact on our life expectancy data and DALY projections," said Dr Stein Emil Wolseth, the study's first author, who leads the GBD Collaboration Group at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
"Globally, the projected effects are strongest for the 'Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks' scenario, with a 13.3% reduction in disease burden (DALYs) in 2050 compared to the 'Reference' (most likely) scenario."
The authors also considered two additional scenarios: one focused on safe environments and the other on improved childhood nutrition and vaccinations.
“While the largest effects on the global DALY burden were seen in the Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks scenario, we also projected reductions in disease burden in the Safe Environment and Improved Child Nutrition and Immunization scenarios compared with our reference projection,” said Amanda E. Smith, deputy director of forecasting at IHME. “This demonstrates the need for continued progress and resources in these areas and the opportunity to accelerate progress by 2050.”
"We have a huge opportunity to influence the future of global health by preventing the rise of metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those linked to behavioural and lifestyle factors such as high blood sugar, high body mass index and high blood pressure," added Dr Murray.