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First global heatwave mortality study reveals more than 153,000 heatwave-related deaths
Last reviewed: 02.07.2025
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A Monash University-led study – the first to globally estimate heatwave-related deaths over the thirty-year period from 1990 to 2019 – found that an extra 153,000+ warm-season deaths are linked to heatwaves, with almost half of those deaths occurring in Asia.
Compared with 1850–1990, global surface temperatures increased by 1.1°C in 2013–2022 and are expected to increase by a further 0.41–3.41°C by 2081–2100. With increasing impacts of climate change, heat waves are not only becoming more frequent, but also increasing in severity and scale.
The study, published in PLOS Medicine and led by Professor Yuming Guo of Monash University, looked at daily death and temperature data from 750 locations in 43 countries or regions.
The study, conducted in collaboration with Shandong University in China, the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine in the UK and universities/research institutes in other countries, found that from 1990 to 2019, heatwaves resulted in an extra 236 deaths per ten million inhabitants per warm season. The regions with the highest heatwave-related deaths were in:
- Southern and Eastern Europe
- Regions with polar and alpine climates
- Areas with high income levels of residents
Places with tropical climates or low incomes showed the largest reduction in heatwave-related mortality burden from 1990 to 2019.
Professor Guo said that in previous studies looking at increased mortality associated with heatwave exposure, "the evidence has mostly come from limited locations."
"Our findings that heatwaves are associated with significant mortality that varies spatially and temporally across the world over the past 30 years suggest that there needs to be localised adaptation planning and risk management at all levels of government."
According to the study authors, heat waves cause an increased risk of death due to the overload of heat stress on the human body and the impairment of multiple organ functions, as well as heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and heat stroke. Heat stress can also worsen existing chronic diseases, leading to premature death, mental disorders, and other consequences.
The results of the work are described in detail in an article published in the journal PLoS Medicine.