Forecast: By 2100, the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will increase by more than 35%
Last reviewed: 16.10.2021
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The new computer model showed: if humanity does not want to increase the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by more than 35% in comparison with the 2005 index by 2100, the cheapest way to do this is to reduce emissions.
This means more nuclear power plants and alternative sources of energy, more electric cars, more forests, as well as utilization of the produced carbon dioxide.
Researchers from the Joint Research Institute of Global Change named their scenario RCP 4.5. This is one of the four economic forecasts that experts from all over the world will now use to study how the climate can respond to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, how much solar energy they will absorb and how the world market will react to it.
The scenario is based on the PNNL Global Change Assessment Model.
RCP 4.5 suggests that by the year 2100, radiative forcing will be 4.5 W / m², that is, about 525 parts of carbon dioxide per million (today this figure is 390 parts per million). Taking into account other greenhouse gases, the concentration will reach 650 parts per million in carbon dioxide equivalent.
Unlike the other three scenarios, RCP 4.5 takes into account carbon stored in forests and released into the atmosphere during logging. Previous experiments have shown that without this parameter, economic and climatic models do not see anything valuable in the forests and advise them to destroy in order to clear the place for the production of biofuels and food.
It turned out that by 2100 the cost of one ton of carbon dioxide could rise to $ 85. This should stimulate the growth of nuclear and alternative energy. In addition, it will be cheaper to introduce technologies on bio- and fossil-fuel power plants that capture and store greenhouse gases, instead of throwing them into the atmosphere. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions by anthropogenic sources will reach 42 Gt / yr (today 30 Gt) by 2040, after which they will start to fall approximately as fast as they grew, and stabilize by 2080 at the level of 15 Gt / year.
The results were converted in such a way as to satisfy the requests of climate models with a different resolution. Thus, important regional differences were identified. For example, despite relatively small changes in the volume of methane emissions over the course of the century, there will be noticeable geographical shifts. The center will shift from industrialized countries to South America and Africa.
In addition, the percentage of income people spend on food will decline, despite rising food prices. Researchers attribute this result to changes in agriculture, which will lead to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.