Global life expectancy is expected to increase by almost 5 years by 2050
Last reviewed: 14.06.2024
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The latest findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, published in The Lancet, predict that global life expectancy will increase by 4.9 years for men and women. By 4.2 years for women between 2022 and 2050.
The largest increases are expected to occur in countries with lower life expectancy, contributing to the convergence of life expectancy rates across regions. This trend is largely driven by public health interventions that have prevented and improved survival from cardiovascular disease, COVID-19 and a range of infectious, maternal, neonatal and nutrition-related diseases (CMNN).
Research shows continued shift in disease burden towards non-communicable diseases (NCD) - such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes - and the impact of risk factors associated with NCD, such as obesity, high blood pressure, inadequate nutrition and smoking will have the greatest impact on the disease burden of the next generation.
As the burden of disease continues to shift from CMNN to NCD and from deaths to years lived with disability, people are expected to live longer, but with more years spent in poor health. Global life expectancy is projected to increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years).
Global healthy life expectancy (HALE)—the average number of years a person can live in good health—will increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 (an increase of 2.6 years).
To reach these conclusions, the study predicts cause-specific mortality; years of life lost due to premature death (YLL); years lived with disability (YLD); disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, years of healthy life lost due to ill health and premature death); life expectancy; and HALE from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories.
“In addition to increases in overall life expectancy, we found that disparities in life expectancy between regions will decrease,” said Dr. Chris Murray, chair of the Department of Health Sciences at the University of Washington and director of the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (IHME). "This indicates that while health inequalities between the richest and poorest regions will remain, gaps will narrow, with the largest increases expected in sub-Saharan Africa."
Dr Murray added that the greatest opportunity to accelerate reductions in the global burden of disease lies in policies to prevent and mitigate behavioral and metabolic risk factors.
These findings are based on findings from the 2021 GBD Risk Factors Study, also published in The Lancet. This companion study found that the total number of healthy life years (DALYs) lost due to metabolic risk factors has increased by 50% since 2000.
The study also offers various alternative scenarios to compare the potential health consequences if exposure to several key groups of risk factors could be eliminated by 2050.
“We project significant differences in the global DALY burden between different alternative scenarios to understand what has the greatest impact on our life expectancy data and DALY projections,” said Dr. Stein Emil Wohlseth, first author of the study, who leads the Collaboration Group GBD at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health.
"Globally, projected effects are greatest for the 'Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks' scenario, with a 13.3% reduction in disease burden (in DALYs) in 2050 compared to the 'Reference' (most likely) scenario."
The authors also considered two additional scenarios: one focused on a safe environment and the other on improved child nutrition and vaccinations.
"Although the largest effects on the global burden of DALYs were seen in the 'Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks' scenario, we also projected a reduction in disease burden in the 'Safe Environment' and 'Improved Child Nutrition and Vaccinations' scenarios compared to our benchmark forecast.", said Amanda E. Smith, associate director of forecasting at IHME. "This demonstrates the need for continued progress and resources in these areas and the opportunity to accelerate progress by 2050."
"We have enormous opportunities to influence the future of global health by preventing the rise in metabolic and dietary risk factors, especially those associated with behavioral and educational factors such as high blood sugar, high body mass index and high blood pressure." pressure," added Dr. Murray.