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Study predicts rise in deaths from heat and air pollution
Last reviewed: 02.07.2025
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A new study predicts a sharp rise in temperature- and pollution-related deaths, with the impact of temperature exceeding that of pollution for a fifth of the world's population.
Key findings of the study
According to a study by an international team of scientists led by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, annual deaths due to air pollution and extreme temperatures could reach 30 million by the end of the century. The projections are based on sophisticated numerical modeling and show an alarming trend: air pollution deaths will increase fivefold, while temperature deaths will increase sevenfold. For at least 20% of the world’s population, temperature exposure will become a greater health threat than air pollution.
Numbers and dynamics
- In 2000, about 1.6 million people died each year due to extreme temperatures (cold or heat).
- By the end of the century, that number will rise to 10.8 million, about seven times more.
- For air pollution, the annual death toll in 2000 was about 4.1 million.
- By 2100, this figure will reach 19.5 million, which is five times more.
"In the most likely scenario, by the end of the century, extreme temperatures will pose a greater threat than air pollution for a large part of the population, especially in high-income regions," explains Dr. Andrea Pozzer, group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry.
Regional differences
- South and East Asia: The largest increases in mortality from both factors are projected due to ageing populations. Air pollution will remain a key factor.
- High-income regions (Western Europe, North America, Australasia, Asia-Pacific): Temperature-related deaths have already begun to exceed deaths due to air pollution. This is particularly noticeable in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Japan and New Zealand.
- Central and Eastern Europe (e.g. Poland and Romania) and parts of South America (e.g. Argentina and Chile): A similar shift is expected, with extreme temperatures becoming a more significant threat.
The importance of action
By the end of the century, health risks from extreme temperatures will exceed those from air pollution for one in five people on the planet, highlighting the need for urgent and ambitious action to reduce climate risks.
“Climate change is not only an environmental problem, but also a direct threat to public health,” says Dr. Andrea Pozzer.
“These results demonstrate the critical importance of immediate mitigation measures to prevent future loss of life,” adds Jean Siar, Director of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) at the Cyprus Institute.