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More than 47,000 heat-related deaths occurred in Europe in 2023
Last reviewed: 02.07.2025
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In a recent study published in the journal Nature Medicine, scientists estimated the number of heat-related deaths in Europe in 2023, adjusted for age and gender. They also calculated how many deaths have been avoided by societal adaptation to rising temperatures since 2000.
Climate change poses serious threats to health worldwide, and in 2023 Europe experienced its hottest summer on record. The world is projected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold set by the Paris Agreement by 2027, and the impact of summer heatwaves will pose significant challenges to European societies and health systems.
In 2003, some European countries failed to cope with the effects of a hot summer, prompting the creation of heat-protection initiatives. In 2022, more than 60,000 deaths were linked to record summer temperatures, calling into question the effectiveness of adaptation without taking into account changes in temperature exposure over time.
In this study, the researchers quantified heat-related mortality in 2023 and calculated it for weeks with temperatures above the minimum lethal temperature. They used epidemiological models to estimate the role of adaptation in reducing mortality in the face of rising temperatures.
Adaptation in this case referred to changes in the relationship between temperature exposure and mortality over time, driven by improvements in socioeconomic conditions and adaptation to climate change. The researchers analyzed temperature and mortality data from 823 contiguous areas in 35 countries, covering 543 million Europeans.
Using the data they collected, they projected the number of heat-related deaths in 2023 and estimated how these figures would have changed if such temperatures had been observed in earlier historical periods (from 2000 to 2019). The models were created using mortality and temperature data collected in several European countries.
The researchers predict that there will be 47,690 heat-related deaths in Europe in 2023, the second-highest number since 2015. They say that if such temperatures had been recorded between 2000 and 2004, the death toll would have been 80% higher without modern adaptation measures.
In 2023, 47,312 heat-related deaths were recorded in the European Union, with the highest numbers recorded in southern Europe, especially Greece, Bulgaria, Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal. Women and older people were the most vulnerable groups, with a female to male mortality ratio of 1.6 and 8.7 for people over 80 years of age.
The study found that the number of heat-related deaths in 2023 was the second highest in recent years, behind only 2022. Current adaptation measures have helped reduce deaths, especially among older people. However, more careful monitoring of the impact of climate change on vulnerable populations and enhanced prevention programs are needed to ensure timely adaptation.