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Prediction: Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels will rise by more than 35% by 2100
Last reviewed: 30.06.2025
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A new computer model has shown that if humanity does not want atmospheric carbon dioxide levels to rise by more than 35% by 2100 compared to 2005 levels, the cheapest way to do so is to cut emissions.
This means more nuclear power plants and alternative energy sources, more electric cars, more forests, and the recycling of produced carbon dioxide.
Researchers from the Joint Research Institute of Global Change have named their scenario RCP 4.5. It is one of four economic forecasts that experts around the world will now use to study how the climate might react to increased greenhouse gas emissions, how much solar energy the latter will absorb, and how the global market will react.
The scenario is based on the PNNL Global Change Assessment Model.
RCP 4.5 predicts that by 2100 radiative forcing will be 4.5 W/m², or about 525 parts per million carbon dioxide (today's value is 390 parts per million). Taking into account other greenhouse gases, the concentration will reach 650 parts per million CO2 equivalent.
Unlike the other three scenarios, RCP 4.5 takes into account the carbon stored in forests and released into the atmosphere when they are cut down. Previous experiments have shown that without this parameter, economic and climate models see no value in forests and advise destroying them in order to clear space for the production of biofuels and food.
It turned out that by 2100 the cost of one ton of carbon dioxide could rise to $85. This should stimulate the growth of nuclear and alternative energy. In addition, it will become cheaper to implement technologies at bio- and fossil fuel power plants that capture and store greenhouse gases instead of emitting them into the atmosphere. Moreover, carbon dioxide emissions from anthropogenic sources will reach 42 Gt/year by 2040 (today - 30 Gt), after which they will begin to fall at about the same rate as they grew, and will stabilize by 2080 at 15 Gt/year.
The results were converted to suit the needs of climate models with different resolutions. This revealed important regional differences. For example, although methane emissions change relatively little over the century, there will be significant geographical shifts. The focus will shift from industrialized countries to South America and Africa.
In addition, the percentage of income people spend on food will decline despite rising food prices. The researchers attribute this result to changes in agriculture that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions.