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Flu epidemic: what virus are we expecting this fall?
Last reviewed: 02.07.2025
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With the arrival of the first autumn coolness comes the time of mass influenza cases. What do epidemiologists say, and how dangerous will the virus be this autumn? Several types of influenza are registered in our country every year – at least two – type A, and one – type B. Type A virus also has its subtypes, these are H3N2 and H1N1 (the second is the most dangerous). This autumn, doctors predict cases of influenza, which is called “Michigan” – this virus belongs to the H1N1 variety.
It is pointless to talk about the degree of danger of a particular virus in advance, since, despite forecasts, flu often manifests itself unpredictably. For example, not a single specialist managed to calculate the pandemic onset of the virus in 2009, when people in our pharmacies were panic-stricken and buying up almost everything - from protective masks to strong antiviral drugs. Two years ago, the flu attack was also very strong, with a number of fatalities. And we have not heard early forecasts from specialists. The fact is that it is possible to accurately predict the spread and severity of the disease only when the flu reaches the border of an epidemic. Preliminary forecasts are not always justified: for example, today doctors expect a slight increase in the percentage of cases - 14% more, compared to last fall. This season, not only the H1N1 variety of the virus is expected to circulate, but also the H3N2 strain, which is called "Hong Kong". The last variant has not been detected in our country for several years, so immunity to this virus will no longer work. The Hong Kong virus can cause severe flu in children and elderly patients.
The Michigan virus is more dangerous for young and middle-aged people – approximately 25-50 years old. At the same time, the risk group includes patients prone to obesity, as well as those who suffer from diabetes, asthma, heart and vascular diseases, as well as people who have been taking aspirin for long-term medicinal purposes. Doctors advise these groups of people to think about influenza vaccination in advance. The best time to get vaccinated against influenza is 2-3 months before the expected epidemic surge. Such a surge, as a rule, occurs no earlier than mid-December. However, do not think that after vaccination you will not be at risk of influenza: you can get sick, but the disease will proceed much easier, and the risk of complications is reduced to a minimum.
As for specific antiviral drugs, such as the well-known Zanamivir or Tamiflu, they only have a positive effect if the patient takes them within 48 hours of the onset of the disease. Unfortunately, this happens very rarely: people first start taking drugs such as aspirin, phenylephrine or paracetamol. Doctors insist: if you feel unwell, have a fever, headache and chills, see a doctor immediately. You should not wait until the disease becomes severe.