The flu epidemic: what virus are waiting for this fall?
Last reviewed: 16.10.2021
All iLive content is medically reviewed or fact checked to ensure as much factual accuracy as possible.
We have strict sourcing guidelines and only link to reputable media sites, academic research institutions and, whenever possible, medically peer reviewed studies. Note that the numbers in parentheses ([1], [2], etc.) are clickable links to these studies.
If you feel that any of our content is inaccurate, out-of-date, or otherwise questionable, please select it and press Ctrl + Enter.
With the advent of the first autumn coolness, it is time for mass incidence of influenza. What do epidemiologists say, and how dangerous will the virus be this fall? Annually in our country several types of influenza are registered - at least two - type A, and one - type B. The type A virus also has its own subtypes, it is H3N2 and H1N1 (the second is the most dangerous). This fall, doctors predict the incidence of influenza, which is called "Michigan" - this virus is just a kind of H1N1.
It is meaningless to talk about the degree of danger of a particular virus, because, despite the forecasts, the flu often manifests itself unpredictably. For example, no specialist was able to calculate the pandemic offensive of the virus in advance in 2009, when in our pharmacies people panicked almost everything from protective masks to strong antiviral drugs. Two years ago, the flu-like attack was also the strongest, with a number of deaths. And we did not hear any early forecasts from specialists. The fact is that you can accurately predict the spread and severity of the disease only when the flu reaches the border of the epidemic. Preliminary predictions are not always justified: for example, today physicians suggest a slight increase in the percentage of cases - by 14% more compared to last autumn. In the current season, not only the H1N1 virus, but also the H3N2 strain, called "Hong Kong", is expected to circulate. The latter option has not been found on the territory of our country for several years already, so the immunity to this virus will not work. The virus "Hong Kong" is able to cause severe influenza in children and the elderly.
The virus "Michigan" is more dangerous for people of young and middle age - approximately from the category of 25-50 years. At the same time, the risk group includes patients who are prone to fatness, as well as those who suffer from diabetes, asthma, heart and vascular disease, and people taking long-term aspirin for medical purposes. Listed groups of people doctors are advised to first think about influenza vaccination. The best time to vaccinate against influenza is 2-3 months before the expected epidemic outbreak. Such a surge, as a rule, occurs not earlier than mid-December. However, do not think that after vaccination, the flu does not threaten you: you can get sick, but the disease will run many times easier, and the risk of complications is minimized.
As for specific antiviral agents - for example, the widely known Zanamivir or Tamiflu - they only give a positive effect if the patient took them within the next 48 hours from the onset of the disease. And this, unfortunately, happens very rarely: people, first of all, start taking such drugs as aspirin, phenylephrine or paracetamol. Doctors insist: if you feel unwell, you have fever, have a pain in the head and chills, - immediately consult a doctor. Do not wait until the disease goes into serious form.